The Last Chance for the GOP Establishment, Get Bush or Christie the Nomination

small big govt ccThe horses are lining up in the gates. Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee (seriously he’s going to run again I think) Rick Santorum (this guy has nothing else to do), Jeb Bush, Rick Perry may make another run, and who knows who else, are all chomping at the bit. The 2016 nomination isn’t that far away. They can all taste it.

Within this battle for the GOP nomination is a battle for the Republican Party of course. Will the hostile takeover of the party continue or will the GOP revert to another establishment retread at the helm. Will the social conservatives make a real effort? (They’ll try, but will fail ultimately.) Will a coalition between the remnants of the Christian Coalition and the establishment counter the Tea Party/libertarian trend within the party?

Fundamentally the question is whether the GOP will become a 21st Century party based on the principals of liberty, opportunity, entrepreneurship and innovation, of new ideas, or whether it will try to scrape out one last win with the big government “conservatives” embodied by Jeb Bush and Chris Christie. Will the GOP ever actually be the “party of small government” or is it destined to remain a “big government of another kind” party?

The neoconservatives and DC GOP establishment would prefer the latter. They are not interested in a smaller government at all. They are interested in a big government which has a different emphasis than the one the Dems prefer. For them “small government” is nothing but a talking point (and one which they don’t even use that much any more) to placate the rubes who in their view can be placated by such talk. Why should the GOP actually be for reducing the power of the federal government? That just means reducing the power of the GOP to execute the programs it wants when it is in power.

The neocons have defined the GOP agenda both domestically and abroad for 2 generations now. The party which was once the “grown up party” concerned with Soviet expansion but very sober in its foreign policy, the party which would have recognized programs such as No Child Left Behind as federal power grabs was by the 1990s no more. By then the small government folks (and there were only a very few left even during the Reagan presidency) had been replaced by a crew of Utopian dreamers as happy to pass Medicare Part D as they were to wage 2 land wars in Asia. But they weren’t “conservatives.” They weren’t for “small government.” They weren’t for reducing the power vested in Washington DC. They were neo-conservatives which generally speaking are for big government. As big as the Dems. (At least.)

What “conservative” says that “deficits don’t matter? But that’s what Dick Cheney once said.

The neocons and establishment GOP (they are not exactly one and the same) also share something besides the love of big government with the Democrats. They loathe the Tea Party. I mean loathe the Tea Party.

Those idiots in the tri-cornered hats, reading the Constitution, and making life difficult for Speaker Boehner, have crashed the big government conservative shindig. What’s worse? The Tea Party is way bigger than the neocon crew.

And in addition to being a larger faction than the neocons the Tea Party people know how to leverage social media. The neocons are limited to emailing their wonky friends in DC and New York.

The establishment GOP deeply resents the current citizen revolt. Take for instance the time Speaker Boehner referred to small government advocates in the House as “knuckle draggers.” Or when Bush Treasury Secretary Mr. Hank Paulson lamented that the Internet and the Tea Party made things difficult for the powers that be.

The establishment wants to hand the Tea Party a defeat. It wants to put the Tea Party in its place. “Why don’t you people just go back to whatever you people do in flyover country and leave the ruling…er I mean, governing, to us.”

This is what Pat Caddell, one of the smartest political minds I know thinks too. He had this to say about the establishment GOP and IRS scandal in February.

That’s right. Caddell thinks the establishment GOP isn’t really pursuing the IRS harassment of Tea Party groups because they WANT the Tea Party groups harassed.

The establishment GOP knows that very soon many of them could be swept from the game. They know that they are this close to finding themselves deep in the political wilderness at the hands of what used to be their own party. That is why this group is desperate to get someone they own as the GOP nominee. Chris Christie would be good, but Jeb from Florida would be even better. Just think of all the jobs (in government and on K Street) which will be generated for Bush II alums if Jeb becomes president.

This is why the big Jeb Bush Push started over the last 2 weeks or so. With Christie hobbled a bit by his state issues, Bush has an opening. He has a chance to woo the New York banking money which looked ready to flow to to the New Jersey governor. (Even Bushes need the backing of the big money.)

The Republican wing of the 2 party power structure knows that it is under serious threat. They want to force a situation where the small government wing of the GOP holds its nose and supports the big government establishment candidate because Hillary Clinton is even worse than Jeb or Christie. The establishment thinks that if it can just appeal to a few more women than Romney did it’s fat city again in Washington for them. The Tea Party and the libertarians will have no choice (they think) but to fall in line. This is the play.

But this calculus assumes quite a lot. The main reason Romney lost was because he didn’t have the support of the small government folks, and Christie or Bush very likely might find themselves in the same situation in 2016 if they were to get the nomination. In fact it might be even worse for the establishment Republicans because they no longer control the majority of the GOP electorate. The Tea Party and the libertarians (who in some cases are the same people) appear to be in the majority and their numbers are growing.

The establishment thought it could wait out the insurgents. That before long the small government folks would be brought into the fold. But for the most part they haven’t been. Now the last ditch is getting one of their guys, Bush, Christie or one of the lower tier but establishment acceptable candidates into the White House. If the neocons and DC establishment GOP have a president which tows the line the Tea Party will have no choice but to tow it right with him.

Or so they think.

Steve J
Steve J 5pts

Good article.

Now please forgive me being a "grammar nazi", ... the correct expression is "TOE the line", not "TOW the line".

You "toe" a line when you get into a military formation. You literally place your toes on an either real or imaginary line.

You TOW a line when you take something under tow by use of a "line". 

The expression is meant to say to folks "get into line", or "get with the program" etc, etc.

I mean you no disrespect, just mentioning something many folks don't know.

Bill Bloomer
Bill Bloomer 5pts

Your point is my point. The Progressives in Politics - BOTH sides - have been working on this for more than 100 years. They have a head start. Newsweek ran with a cover several years ago claiming "We're All Socialists Now." In her 2008 campaign, Hillary said she considered herself " early 20th Century Progressive" ... a'la Woodrow Wilson. It is the current political machine that is driving this train toward a cliff. The answer is NOT more of the same, but in returning to Constitutional limits on Government. The current crop of Democrats is certainly not heading in that direction, nor is the Old Guard GOP establishment. So let me ask you ... what do YOU suggest we work toward?

Rich Dooley Jr.
Rich Dooley Jr. 5pts

lol.... (psst, he's not coming, ...he's a fictional character).....

Rich Dooley Jr.
Rich Dooley Jr. 5pts

They also believe the delusion that corporations can regulate themselves.... look at how well that's working in China, where 300,000 human beings Die every year from the smog, (easy to check), water is too polluted to hold life, 12 year old girls jump from factory buildings to their deaths to end the slavery, libertarians want to end the EPA, OSHA, FDA, DOE, and Every regulatory agency.... that would be the End of the planet.... they're more dangerous than the Moron republicans that want to turn US into a Fascist country....

Rich Dooley Jr.
Rich Dooley Jr. 5pts

and what's your definition of socialism?.... is All of US paying to feed workers of Record profit making corporations??? ...CEO's taking $14-$40 Million a year salaries while WE Feed the families of the workers IS FORCED Socialism.... People WORKING two jobs and still needing Welfare and Foodstamps paid by Everybody IS Socialism.... the $83 Billion a year we Hand record profit making crooked banksters, the $34 Million a day to big oil, the $100 Billion a year to those record profit making corporations that took the jobs away, IS Socialism.... until WE seize the $73 Trillion they're Hiding in tax evasion havens, recover the tax revenue from it, and viola, $30 TRILLION in surplus, AND end the Taxpayer funded Handouts, We ARE socialists!!!.... just Not the kind they hoodwinked you into believing is bad.....

Bill Bloomer
Bill Bloomer 5pts

When Jesus comes down he won't have to "run" for anything; He'll already be in charge.

Bill Bloomer
Bill Bloomer 5pts

Progress toward what? is the question you should be asking yourself, Rich. Progress toward Socialism is NOT a good thing, unless you are a socialist. Are you? The "progressives" currently in positions of power are effectively socialists. Me, I'm all for progressing toward greater individual liberty/responsibility (they go together, you know), and NOT toward greater Government intrusion into our lives. RIP GOP? Very possibly ... in the same way the Whigs gave way to the Republicans in the first place. It is much more likely the GOP will be restored to their small-government roots by the flushing of Progressive Republicans like Boehner, McConnell, Cantor, Graham, McCain and their ilk over the next few election cycles.

Rich Dooley Jr.
Rich Dooley Jr. 5pts

Because umm, Progress is a bad thing???..... Yea, let's keep moving backwards with republican morans..... Ha!!!.... I don't think so.... Thank god there's only 24% of you left.... After Nov. the GOP is History!!!..... RIP GOP!!!....

Rich Dooley Jr.
Rich Dooley Jr. 5pts

Bless their hearts.... They don't even have a chance.... Get used to saying Madam President Clinton...

Rich Dooley Jr.
Rich Dooley Jr. 5pts

Lol.... You're funny... Bush killed a million people, stole $8 Trillion taxpayer dollars, and so far avoided being hanged at The Hague, and lost 30 Million jobs, ....Nobody wanted him back dude.... Btw, republicans HATE Brown people my friend.... Especially Hispanics.... Do you Hate yourself too???

Rich Dooley Jr.
Rich Dooley Jr. 5pts

If Jesus came down and ran youd call him a libtard sociologist...

Tim Grills
Tim Grills 5pts

Nope, will not vote for either of those idiots.

John Graves
John Graves 5pts

hahahahaha the gop can kiss my ass. im american not republican or democrap

Tommy Newcomb
Tommy Newcomb 5pts

The elitists probably want hildebeast to win so they setup a fake Republican to split us up and the beaste will "win".

Sean O'Neill
Sean O'Neill 5pts

I won't vote for either of these progressives

Conor McLeod
Conor McLeod 5pts

Well, I don't see the democrats doing anything to make the government any smaller. Democrats = republicans. They fight and fight while stealing your money and freedoms in the background. Wake up.

Virgil Carter
Virgil Carter 5pts

I would never vote for Bush or Christie, they are both RINOs!

Geo James
Geo James 5pts

it is only therir naivety that belies their arrogance

Norman Fastenau
Norman Fastenau 5pts

They're both crap. I would like to see Gingrich get in...but that's just me. I don't care about the man's personal life, we all make mistakes...but I want a true patriot sitting in the white house; not some foreign muslim liar bent on the destruction of this nation!

Scott Worley
Scott Worley 5pts

Looks like I will be voting independent if the RNC puts one of those 2 idiots up for election

Bernard Libby
Bernard Libby 5pts

Voting for the puppet on the right hand over the puppet on the left hand will not change the puppet master

despinet927 5pts

While I agree that Rand Paul is the most Liberterian minded presidential candidate with a realistic oportunity to win the 2016 presidential election, I believe that the individual he selects to be his running mate will ultimately make the difference in whether or not Hilary Clinton ends up winning. Whatever your personal thoughts are regarding Ted Cruz, I do not believe a Paul-Cruz ticket has even a remote possibility of getting the support of the ever increasing ¨benefits oriented¨ masses. IMHO, the only VP candidate which would give Rand Paul a good shot at becoming our next President is African-American Republican Dr. Ben Carson.

Mike Purcell
Mike Purcell 5pts

Oh hell no, out with the NWO agenda 21 commies both D and R..we all need to unite!!

Doreen Davis
Doreen Davis 5pts

Bush or christie will lose. If the republicans back them or any other progressive they will lose their whole vase this time.

George Michaud
George Michaud 5pts

The nominate either one of these RINos and they will lose again!

Aquiles Pietri
Aquiles Pietri 5pts

Anything is better than what we have now, but either of these is not much better. They may get rid of some of Obamas madness but rest assured they will create their own sets of nastiness that may make us wish Obama was back. It's happened with Bush, with people wishing he was back in office. We need to break this never ending slide into oblivion caused by "voting for the lesser of two evils!" Vote for neither, get a real candidate out there, instead of these shills!