Central Bank of Central Banks warns next global crash could arrive ‘with a vengeance’

Dismiss these warnings at your peril.

Will it happen today? Tomorrow? In the next year? Next 3? No one knows for sure. But we are feeling increasingly extended in world markets (and not just in stock markets).

Yet there is deep value driving some of the economy too. There is no doubt about that.

That the EU types have been rebuffed with Brexit and Trump are positives – despite what you’ve heard –

Read More

Popping our political bubbles is a good thing

This is an interesting article from Noah Millman senior editor at The American Conservative. Attached to the article is an even more interesting discussion of the social media driven “political bubbles” we all live in to a greater or lesser extent from Al Jazeera.

We think it is wise to expose oneself to different political dispositions actively. Indeed at this website we are fortunate that though we proudly proclaim our classically liberal or libertarian bias,

Read More

Societe Generale Economist: Recession ahead, “a tidal wave of corporate default”

We’ll see. The market is down today but has been solidly up for a few weeks (after a dismal start to the year). But the underlying economic reality hasn’t changed. The deep fundamentals are not good and they haven’t been good for a long time.

Read More

The Fed caused 93% of the entire stock market’s move since 2008: Analysis

So in other words 7% of the market’s upside since 2008 is real. (I’ll bet even that is generous.) This should concern anyone who thinks that economics is more than smoke, mirrors, and animal spirits.

The economist who did this speaks of a tech bubble, housing bubble, and now Fed bubble. But it is really Fed bubble 1, 2, and 3.

Read More

Money is Fleeing the Ultimate Crony Capitalist State, China, and it is Destabilizing

“Even I keep my money in Switzerland these days.”

China is not such a good place to keep money medium to long term as it turns out. The wealthy in China are “deeply distrustful” of policy makers. As such many are getting out of China if they can. Beijing is concerned, probably panicking in light of all of the money which is flowing out of the country. And as China is in many respects a black box (perhaps a grey box) people with money can only assume that things are bad and so that compounds the Chinese “problem.”

Read More

Trump Predicts U.S. Economic ‘Bubble’ Could Soon Burst

There is more economic nastiness out there right now than many in this country think. We’ve had a massive papering over of a very tenuous economy during the Obama years. Now the Fed has moved to slightly raise rates (seems reasonable to us, but we’d prefer that the market set all rates of interest) while much of the rest of the world is slowing – again. China, Brazil, much of Europe, many if not most the commodity driven developing countries,

Read More

Nearly All US Economists Don’t Trust China’s GDP Numbers: Poll

We’ve been saying the numbers weren’t to be trusted in China for years. (We certainly weren’t the only ones.) Looks like the world is also coming to this realization, or more likely is just acknowledging that the jig is up. Or maybe both. Whatever, we hope that you had a good ride if you were investing in China on the long side, and hope that you saw the writing on the ghost city walls before things got ugly.

Read More

Tricked out student housing equals big developer profits (Of course it’s funded by student debt largely)

Meanwhile at High Point University

Funny how things are sometimes on this website. In the prior post we heard Peter Schiff warn of the student debt bubble, something we’ve long been focused on here, and now this little article comes along.

What do you remember of living arrangements in college? Bunk beds perhaps? A shared sink and bathroom with suite mates? Bookshelves made from cinder blocks and plywood?

Not anymore. In some places student housing resembles a cruise ship more than it does a dormitory.

Read More

The Ultimate Crony Capitalist State struggles with reality, “The beginning of a much larger turndown with China” (VIDEO)

It should be noted that when aspirational countries hit economic brick walls they often do not react well. Suddenly power shifts, as do markets and political perspective – in policy circles and in the general population. This creates instability, which threatens the powers that be. The powers that be then react.

Read More

Memo to China: Your Market Moves Are Doomed to Fail

From a Chinese market

When an economy is built upon dishonesty, and dishonest prices most importantly, an economy’s reckoning is only a matter of time. The further the charade goes on, the worse the reckoning. China’s been going on for a long time.

Now the Chinese government is trying to save its market with more central planning and knob turning. And don’t forget about the guns it has too.

But ultimately the system will erode. It isn’t built on real prices.

Read More

Billionaire investor Icahn, We are in a bubble, could be “very very destructive.” (Video)

Yeah, the reckoning has been coming for a very long while. The Fed is out of control and lost. The stock market as it is is not sustainable. Many other markets are in the same boat.

Any market which reflects the wants and desires of the rich (aka those closest to newly “printed” money) is pretty much in a bubble. Art, wine, etc. Even residential real estate in places like London and New York are bubblicious.

It isn’t going to keep going.

Read More

A Tale Of Two Bubbles: China vs Nasdaq

New Chinese condo.

Sometimes 2 trends will look eerily similar for a good long while and then the 2 trends will diverge. We’ll see in this case.

However there is a very good case to be made for a Chinese stock bubble, hell, a Chinese country bubble in many respects.  China is the ultimate crony capitalist state.

That China is rattling its saber with such vigor lately may be a symptom of a Communist Party which is seeking to focus attention away from domestic economic issues.

Read More