
China, as we have written for quite a while (along with many others) is in serious trouble. Underpinning the “Chinese Dream” is piles and piles and piles of (likely bad) debt.

China, as we have written for quite a while (along with many others) is in serious trouble. Underpinning the “Chinese Dream” is piles and piles and piles of (likely bad) debt.

Since the dollar continues to be the world reserve currency, and since the mega banks float like clouds over the entire planet paying little attention to borders, we shouldn’t be surprised. But that the Fed has essentially given away $1 trillion to non-American banks is pretty amazing . (Not that American banks are any better than the foreign ones of course.)
Juiced data coming out of the Ultimate Crony Capitalist State? We are shocked.
My bet is that the powers that have been created by the business/government partnership of the last 25 years aren’t going to fall in line readily.

The great hope for business leaders and those of the political sort was that China would pull the world out of the greatest economic downturn in 3 generations. This has failed to happen and is failing more with each passing day. China isn’t going to save the day. China has been built on a good amount of economic magic and it needs a correction desperately. It likely has one on its hands though this still is not the official consensus.

This is what happens when the government runs the economy without the feedback mechanism of lawsuits and a free press. People and businesses just up and leave.
One of the reasons we’ve been able to run the deficits we have and accumulate the $17 trillion in debt that we have is because the US enjoys the reserve currency of the world. The dollar is used worldwide, and the big deals of the world, especially around oil and food commodities are done in the dollar. Pretty much to do business on a global scale a country must own dollars. We print the world’s money.

We have for a long time writen about the property bubble in China. The Chinese real estate system is driven by decrees from Beijing which then tumble down to the local level. Prices are often tossed aside for political reasons. China wants “growth,” or did, at all cost, even if it required a huge misallocation of resources. Because the market has not been allowed to work in China, especially in the real estate sector, it makes sense to expect prices to eventually burst the dam.

I’m not one for the whole “The Department of Education is full of communists” bit. But quoting Mao on a kids website, a guy who is directly responsible for the deaths of between 40-80 million people, does not help one’s case.
China is overbuilt, over leveraged, and over managed.