We’ve been saying the numbers weren’t to be trusted in China for years. (We certainly weren’t the only ones.) Looks like the world is also coming to this realization, or more likely is just acknowledging that the jig is up. Or maybe both. Whatever, we hope that you had a good ride if you were investing in China on the long side, and hope that you saw the writing on the ghost city walls before things got ugly.
The Chinese have poured stimulus on top of stimulus already. An archipelago of idiot central planning projects stretches from the Ordos desert in the north to the lush mountains in the south. High rises reach to the sky but are empty, in the middle of cities which are empty, in a country which is anything but empty.
Well I can’t believe it. You mean the economic data from the world’s Ultimate Crony Capitalist State is intentionally incorrect? You mean China’s entire economy might be overstated by 10-12%? (Doesn’t that put Japan back into the number 2 slot?) You mean those ghost city stories are for real? That the red dragon, though not toothless is lacking much of the fire we thought it had? I am shocked.
China is overbuilt, over leveraged, and over managed.
This is a great example of why the government should never manage the economy. The more government manages, the more it will mess things up. Over time this is nearly always true. It is absolutely true in China.
China’s Trust Bombs Exploding (That’s Shadow Banking Trusts)
How can America compete with China’s subsidized industries in the 21st Century? Surely we will be left behind and the Red Dragon will come back to swallow us into its state-capitalism fed belly.
“Xi Jinpeng, the man likely to take over this year as China’s new leader, said the carefully calibrated slowdown was on track. ‘There will be no so-called hard landing,’ he said on a trip to the US.”