We are 6 years out from the Crash and everything still feels weird. The economy hasn’t come back. It’s a strange new beast. Alive and not alive. A zombie. Feasting on the last scraps of the real economy.
Call it the new abnormal.
Since 2008 the world has been turned upside down. In our collective panic we have disrupted whatever used to pass for economic homeostasis. Now the globe is moving (moved) toward a negative interest rate environment for government bonds.
Please, take my money. I’ll pay you to take my money! Why am I paying a government to hold my money? Well, because the economy is so healthy of course.
Oh, it’s a bull market alright. Can nothing stop the QE induced party? The sun has come up and set a few times on this market, yet the DJ is still pumping the music and most importantly the drug dealers are still milling about the crowd.
Ibiza in pinstripes. Or if you prefer Las Vegas in pinstripes.
I’m not a fan of Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s right hand man. I haven’t been a fan for a long time but this statement back in 2012 really annoyed me.
Such arrogance. I’m sorry Mr. Munger but not all of us get to drink from the Fed’s fire hose of easy money. For many of us gold is a last resort. Not an investment per se, but a hedge against guys like you. Of course you know that and that’s why you said what you said.
“If it keeps on rainin’ levy’s gonna break…” – Led Zeppelin
This comes from Philly Fed President Charles Plosser, via Zerohedge.
“I don’t think another $trillion in purchases is enough to achieve what the ECB is trying to do.”
There was some debate a few months ago as to whether the massive drop in oil prices constituted a “black swan” event. Meaning that it was a completely unforeseen highly important event which had the potential to change economic sentiments quickly.
Japan, you gave us karate, Godzilla, walkmans (remember those?), sushi, Hello Kitty, and cars which didn’t fall apart. Though we fought you bitterly in World War II America came to love you more than any other country in the world with the exception of the United Kingdom (and maybe Australia, Canada doesn’t count). We hate to see you in your current straits. One, because we have a general affinity for the Land of the Rising Sun. But two, because we are riding the same bullet train here in the States, just a little further down the track.
It has failed. It has failed for over 2 decades now.
But I attach an interesting debate featuring Peter Boockvar (in the Abenomics is a disaster camp) and David Zervos (in the Abenomics is proof that Keynesian huja buja works camp). They are diametrically opposed and it is fun to watch.
Indeed. Europe is pretty much in depression. So is Japan. (But so what’s new?) And by the way deflation is not necessarily a bad thing. We had mild price deflation through the most prosperous part of American history between the Civil War and the Fist World War. Things should naturally trend toward being less expensive as innovation increases, delivery streamlined, and competition increases.- Just had to get that in.
Scalise discusses a number of things in the attached interview, including the Keystone Pipeline, the minimum wage, and “bipartisanship” (fear bipartisanship). But the most important nugget is that it looks like Congress will force a Fed audit onto Obama’s desk and he will have to sign it or veto it.*
From Paul Singer’s letter to investors,
As a young broker an older quite successful broker told me the same thing. He also said that there was no reason to watch CNBC after 9:30 (the opening market bell) because anything of value for the day which actually found its way onto TV happened before the markets got rolling.
I have found both bits of advice to be right.
This is a great video. Peter Thiel of Paypal fame (he was also the first investor in Facebook, among other things) speaks of the “slow impoverishment” of the United States through inflation and regulation.
He is dead on.
And then the obvious question is – “Where do the central bankers get all this money?”
Only a few people think about that, and half of the people thinking about it don’t care that this “money” comes from nowhere. All they care about is the next quarter, the next day, the next tick, whatever helps them through their withdrawal.